Taras Chornovil puts his money on Yulia Tymoshenko

- In your opinion, who will win the presidency, Yanukovych or Tymoshenko?

- I guess, Yanukovych will lead Tymoshenko by about 5% in the first round. However, Tymoshenko will win in the runoffs by a margin of 5% or even more.

The situation has changed. Tymoshenko has capitalized smartly on the flue epidemic, stealing the thunder from Yanukovych and forestalling criticism from the opposition. Yanukovych is now unable to mount any significant campaign. His present moves are not effective.

Moreover, voters in Western Ukraine cannot be so easily swayed from their former preferences.

If Yanukovych again thows in his carrot of the second state language, it will just mobilize anti-Yanukovych voters. Unlike Yanukovych, Tymoshenko can still build up her voter base. Most probably, Yatseniuk and Yushchenko will steal some of her votes in the first round. If Russia’s Medvedev writes another letter to Yushchenko the incumbent may score even better. However, his rating remains miserable, and he fully justifies his present nickname, kefir [sour milk].

- It’s like in the supermarket. Kefir’s fat content is written prominently on every bottle, 0% or 1.2% or 2.5% or, the highest, 3.2%. Yushchenko’s rating is wavering in this area.

- It looks like this

- If Yanukovych makes it to the highest office, Tymoshenko will be here to stay. She will continue as premier, and Our Ukraine will have to decide quickly whose side it will take. Unless they side with Tymoshenko against Yanukovych, they will be history very soon.

The Yedyny Tsentr, a breakaway group of NUNS, will be the only one to back up Yanukovych. All other factions will formally join the existing coalition, with Tymoshenko handing out posts or perks to them. The BYT faction will hold its ground even in case of Tymoshenko defeat. It means that Yanukovych won’t have a chance to disband the Rada.

- I doubt the coalition will unravel. Yanukovych might strike a deal with Tymoshenko after his win, but it will be a short-lived truce, 2-3 months at the most. Then he or she will have been had by him or her, and the whole spat, like the present one between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, will start all over – only at a much more fierce level.

- What will happen if Tymoshenko wins?

- If Tymoshenko wins she will have control over all the branches of power. Her premier will play second fiddle, with the Rada looking her way. Very soon she will have a constitutional majority.

On the one hand, Tymoshenko will become an autocratic leader. However, Tymoshenko likes to be admired, especially abroad. That is why I think she will accept the rules of the game proposed by Europe and America. The rules boil down to the concept «you may introduce autocracy but don’t cross the line.»

Consequently, Tymoshenko won’t risk to cross the line, something the EU will be sure to appreciate. A couple of German lawmakers have recently told me that they like Belarus and Lukashenka even more than Ukraine – because there are responsible politicians there with whom they may talk.

Who of the two is a larger evil? I don’t really know. But Tymoshenko’s strong arm will have a stronger appeal for Ukrainians than the snafu we are having now.

- Not the following day. If he loses, his faction will break up. Half of Regions lawmakers today are trying to woo Tymoshenko. Regions businessmen are beating their breasts saying they are loyal to Tymoshenko.

- I have the impression that the countdown will start soon.

In what ways is Tymoshenko different from Yanukovych? Yanukovych and Yushchenko, upon gaining power, immediately get down to redistributing the turf for a narrow circle of their insiders. They begin to strangle other tycoons.

On the other hand, Tymoshenko is not that blood-thirsty. She prefers to attract tycoons and politicians to her side, often being satisfied merely by their expressions of loyalty.