Sevastopol for sale?

“I am convinced that the gas deal signed by Premier Tymoshenko with Russia in early 2009 foresees the sale of Sevastopol to Russia for gas debts. When 2017 comes [the year of Russia Black Sea fleet withdrawal from Crimea], you’ll see what’ll happen. Sevastopol will be sold for gas debts and penalties for not buying the contracted amounts of gas [Brodsky should be advised here that Premier Tymoshenko has wrenched a promise from Putin not to charge Ukraine for buying less gas than it contracted – Ed.],” Ukrayinska Pravda quotes Brodsky, who had fallen out with Yulia Tymoshenko in 2006 to become her vocal critic, as saying.

For his part, Ukraine radical Dmytro Korchynsky says Russia will try to annex Sevastopol much earlier than 2017.

Gas debts can become a bargaining chip when 2017 comes. However, Russia may try to annex Sevastopol much earlier than 2017. Kremlin favors a military scenario as it will mobilize Russian voters and unite the country’s elite. The need is purely technical, Dmytro Korchynsky, the leader of Bratstvo NGO told ZIK Oct. 22.

Commenting on Brodsky’s statement that the sale of Sevastopol is part of the gas deal, the whole scenario is not real as there are no laws allowing to sell the city. Korchynsky, however, agreed with Brodsky in that Russia will try to cash in on Ukraine’s growing gas debts to pressure Ukraine and make it quit Crimea.

The Black Sea fleet will never withdraw from Sevastopol, says Korchynsky. The fleet is stationed in Sevastopol to take away Crimea from Ukraine. As of mid19th century the fleet has stopped playing any naval role, he notes.

If Russia had an option – to buy or annex Sevastopol, Russia would prefer the latter even if it carried a higher price.

Another expert, Vladimir Kornilov, director of the CIS Institute, Kyiv branch, says Russia is not so naïve as to buy Sevastopol from Tymoshenko.

Speaking to ZIK Oct. 22, Kornilov said Russia has long given up on negotiating long-range deals with Ukrainian politicians. The true value of their promises, let alone Yulia Tymoshenko’s, is well known in Moscow, he said. It would be naïve to think that someone in Moscow has signed a long-range deal including the sale of Sevastopol for debts.

Kornilov doubts that Russia will wait till 2017 to reclaim its gas debt. “Russia is caught in the recession, too, and it needs money to overcome the crisis. Russia will want the money now, not in 10 or 15 years,” Kornilov said.