In May hungry Ukrainians will march on Kyiv and sweep away ruling regime, Oleh Soskin forecasts

There was a 30 billion hryvnia budget revenue shortfall in the first 2 months of 2009, Soskin said, despite Premier Tymoshenko’s upbeat crowd-pleasing statements to the opposite.

The premier has admitted 1.2 billion wage arrears to budget-supported employees, promising to repay the arrears from VAT. However, VAT rebates cannot be paid out as there are no budget revenues, he continued.

Meanwhile, the IMF won’t give any loans to Ukraine, Soskin opines, because the requests for loans were drawn up by amateurs. The IMF plays by clear-cut rules. It will provide funding on condition Ukraine won’t embezzle it, the expert continued.

To save the situation, Ukraine’s ruling elite must be replaced. There are two ways how to do this. The first involves the use of force. There is a threat that hungry Ukrainians from all over the country will march on Kyiv, paralyzing the capital. That is why this scenario is the worst and most dangerous.

To remedy the situation, Soskin has proposed to adopt changes in the election law, introduce open party lists and hold the elections in June. Only political parties, not blocs named after politicians, should be allowed to run. Their rosters must be published. Given this, only 8% of the present lawmakers will be elected to the legislature, Soskin concludes.